While the British and Irish Lions look to be a well-balanced and strong squad, iafrica.com columnist, BJ Botha, does not see them winning a Test match in South Africa, let alone the series…

Well, I think the squad looks very much like the side the Rugby media over here have predicted and don’t think it is far off my prediction a couple of weeks ago. There were one of two surprises, but overall it looks to be a well-rounded squad that will rely on settled combinations from the national teams — with a number of Munster players involved as well as the 9-10 axis from both Ireland and Wales.

With a limited amount of time to work with the squad, that may be a good call, as the team will not have much time to settle and get to know one another as a combination ahead of the tour.

The selection of Paul O’Connell as captain of the side is also a great call as Ian McGeechan looks to another big, strong lock to lead from the front. It will be a necessity for O’Connell and Lions tight five to lay a solid platform and allow the backline ball on the front foot, if the side wants to have any chance of gaining the upper hand with the Springboks at home.

It was a bit surprising that the selectors only went for one national captain in the squad — with Ireland Brian O’Driscoll the only one to make the Lions — and that lack of leadership may become a problem if anything was to happen to O’Connell and O’Driscoll. Looking across the board, who beyond those two have captaincy credentials?

I think that Wales captain Ryan Jones would have been a good call for when O’Connell is off the field — or at the very least to lead the midweek side — and he was very unlucky not to be selected. I am not sure who they are going to have leading the midweek team, but you may find experienced campaigners like England lock Simon Shaw, or even Irish flank Alan Quinlan, will crack the nod…

The front row is another area where the Lions may find it difficult. The props are solid, but the selectors have gone for ball-running hookers, like Jerry Flannery, Lee Mears and Matthew Rees, while the hard grafters like Rory Best and Ross Ford were left out. Having scrummed against all three of these hookers I feel this selection could severely weaken the front row because, irrespective of the props in the side, the hooker remains key to the strength in the front row.

Scottish lock Nathan Hines was also a bit of a surprise as he has just come back from injury, while I think Ian Gough, who is another player who puts in the hard graft, would have been a better choice. Gough is a huge grafter and really goes out to make sure the opposition know he is on the field — he would have been a very good option to come off the bench.

At the end of the day, however, nobody will ever be entirely happy with the squad and the coaches need to select the players not only on form, but also those who they feel will best fit their game plan.

Need to be physical

The Lions management know that when playing South Africa at home you need to match them physically first, and then look to play off other areas, because if you can’t get good, clean ball you might as well pack it in from the start.

For the Lions to dominate they have to be competitive in the set-phases, but man-for-man against our pack it is going to be very difficult. Their locks are very good, and they will try to impose themselves however we should still have too much for them in both set piece areas.

Although rugby has come a long way since ’97 I still think McGeechan and his team will still try to emulate what they succeeded with in ’97, a fast paced game with territory playing a huge part. However with the selectors favouring size rather than speed I feel particularly for the hard grounds in SA a player like England’s Tom Croft, who has incredible athletic ability would have done very well if selected.

Having a player like Joe Worsley to do all the ground work and to compete at that all important break-down area is great as is having someone getting you over that all important gain line. I am not sure who that will be, but Wales number eight Andy Powell did very well against us last year and he may be the man to do the job.

All in all it is going to be very difficult for the Lions in South Africa and realistically I can’t see them winning a Test match. The most difficult games for them will, of course be on the Highveld — at Ellis Park and Loftus.

Ireland has done well since winning the Six Nations, and the Grand Slam, and the Lions will be hoping the other three nations added to this will give them a very much needed secret recipe for success. However the Boks will have a very different outlook on the battle to come and I am sure the “King of the Jungle” will be first on their menu list!


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