iafrica.com columnist, BJ Botha, makes his return this week and after watching the Springboks dismantle the All Blacks in Bloemfontein he reckons the Tri-Nations is wide open this year!

After the first two rounds of this year's Tri-Nations I am not willing to put my money on anybody right now, however, the World Champions look to be in pole position at the moment. At the start of the tournament I would have backed Australia, who looked a dangerous outfit in the Tests leading up to the Tri-Nations, to be up there in the end with us, but now it is wide open!

That is what makes the Tri-Nations such a great tournament, particularly at the moment, now that the All Blacks are no longer running away with it as they have at times in the past.

Australia is a very dangerous team, particularly as they are putting out a strong forward pack, and I believe they were very unlucky against the All Blacks in Auckland. The ABs, meanwhile, are still quality and if they don't pick up too many injuries, can still win the tournament, while the Boks — who if they win on Saturday will certainly be in a great position — can beat anybody when they are firing.

All Blacks will improve in Durban

I thought we played very well in Bloemfontein where our set-pieces were exceptional. The All Blacks had concerns over their lineouts heading into the Test and they were again found out with the Boks destroying them there. Our scrums were also very solid and we laid a fantastic platform to attack from, and really, if we had finished off a little better on the day, the scoreline could have been a lot bigger.

I believe the return of Bakkies Botha made a difference to the Bok pack on the weekend. Bakkies had a great game up front and you could see how we smashed them in the forwards. Bakkies is the kind of player that leads from the front, he is the enforcer of the team and he knows his role is to hurt people and knock them back. It is fantastic for the Boks to have him there and you can see how much he is missed when he is not.

The pack overall is really growing with each game as well, with Heinrich Brussouw, in particular starting to come into his own now. Of course, if the pack is going forward, it means the openside flanker is the front foot, and that makes his job of contesting at the rucks a whole lot easier.

The All Blacks, meanwhile, were poor in some aspects, and were not firing on all cylinders. We played well, and will take any win against the All Blacks, but it will be a different story this weekend in Durban, which will make it a very interesting Test match to watch.

We all know that travelling takes it out of you, and also that altitude can have a negative effect. The All Blacks will undoubtedly count their losses and look at getting at least the one win in South Africa. There will be no room for excuses in Durban either and they are the team under pressure because two losses on the road means they will return home needing to win. The Boks have exposed the ABs at home — last year in Dunedin — so that will be playing on their minds a bit as well.

Need the ball to be expansive

The Kiwis have stated their desire to continue playing the expansive game in Durban and it is not surprising that they want to move the game away from the tight exchanges. The reason they want to get the ball out wide is so they do not have to take the Boks on at their own game. They want to get their backs ball and use it out wide, but they will still need to win the ball at the breakdown and the setpieces Ô there is no escaping that…

The All Blacks need to get the phases going, get the ball out wide and try and break the defence, but the Boks will be sure to counter it with their natural physicality. I don't see us moving away from what has worked for us in the past by trying to play the ABs at their own game! The Boks are smart enough to stick to what they know and can adjust if the gameplan is not working. It is just a matter of fine-tuning.

Regarding the gameplan from the Boks point of view, I know there has been a lot of focus back home on who should be our starting flyhalf — Ruan Pienaar or Morne Steyn — and thought I should weigh in on it this week. (Despite the fact that Ruan's injury has made the decision for us all).

For me, Test matches are all about experience and that is where Ruan edges ahead in the debate. He has been there before and he has close to 30 Test caps behind him — and that is a big plus.

Having said that we all know how important kicking is in Test match rugby and Morne undoubtedly has a fantastic boot on him. He has also come off a great Super 14 season and has the media backing him for a spot in the team. At the end of the day neither of them is out of place in Test rugby.

But like I said, I would give Ruan the thumbs up because of his experience with Morne coming in off the bench.

BJ's prediction for this weekend: I think the Boks are on the front foot going into this Test and they should continue on the way they have been going. The All Blacks will be far better value than they were last weekend and are not likely to make as many mistakes in Durban. They have a had a better build-up this week and the Test will be another tight, hard match — in the end, however, I am sure the Boks will take it.


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